MARCH ’23 PROJECTION
- _Globe Elections UN Video
- _HEADLINE
- _SEAT PROJECTION
- _VOTE SHARE PROJECTION
- _FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
- _RESEARCH INFORMATION
- _Globe Elections Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard
_Globe Elections UN Video
_HEADLINE
According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will clinch the victory over Center-Left, but it is still Extremely Close between Center-Left & Center-Right in the vote level, which means Center-Left could win if unified.
_SEAT PROJECTION
-By Coalition
Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 250 Seats
(+3 From Feb ’23, +13 From Last Election)
Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 69 Seats
(+3 From Feb ’23, -16 From Last Election)
Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 56 Seats
(-4 From Feb ’23, +4 From Last Election)
Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 20 Seats
(-2 From Feb ’23, -1 From Last Election)
Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)
People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)
Others(ALT / Mixed) : 5 Seats
(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)
-By Party
Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 132 Seats
(+1 From Feb ’23, +13 From Last Election)
League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 66 Seats
(+1 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)
Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 60 Seats
(+3 From Feb ’23, -14 From Last Election)
Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 56 Seats
(-4 From Feb ’23, +4 From Last Election)
Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 44 Seats
(+1 From Feb ’23, -1 From Last Election)
Third Pole(TP / Center) : 20 Seats
(-2 From Feb ’23, -1 From Last Election)
Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 9 Seats
(+0 From Feb ’23, -3 From Last Election)
Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 8 Seats
(+0 From Feb ’23, +1 From Last Election)
South Tyrolean People’s Party + Trentino Tyrolean Autonomist Party(SVP+PATT / Lean-Right) : 3 Seats
(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)
South Calls North(ScN / Big Tent) : 1 Seat
(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)
More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Feb ’23, -2 From Last Election)
Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)
People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)
Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0 Seat
(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)
Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 1 Seat
(+0 From Feb ’23, +0 From Last Election)
_VOTE SHARE PROJECTION
-By Coalition
Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Right-wing) : 46.18%
(+0.57pp From Feb ’23, +3.05pp From Last Election)
Center-Left Coalition(CSX/ Center-Left) : 22.87%
(+1.03pp From Feb ’23, -3.68pp From Last Election)
Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.97%
(-1.07pp From Feb ’23, +1.80pp From Last Election)
Center Coalition(CX / Center) : 7.52%
(-0.64pp From Feb ’23, -0.17pp From Last Election)
Eurosceptic Coalition(IE / Big Tent) : 2.77%
(+0.11pp From Feb ’23, -0.26pp From Last Election)
People’s Union(UP / Far-Left) : 1.01%
(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)
Others(ALT / Mixed) : 2.68%
(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)
-By Party
Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing) : 29.41%
(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, +4.42pp From Last Election)
Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left) : 17.24%
(+0.92pp From Feb ’23, -2.82pp From Last Election)
Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 16.97%
(-1.07pp From Feb ’23, +1.80pp From Last Election)
League(LEGA / Far-Right) : 9.15%
(+0.46pp From Feb ’23, -0.30pp From Last Election)
Third Pole(TP / Center) : 7.52%
(-0.64pp From Feb ’23, -0.17pp From Last Election)
Forward Italy(FI / Center-Right) : 7.28%
(+0.13pp From Feb ’23, -0.51pp From Last Election)
Greens & Left(AVS / Left-wing) : 3.04%
(-0.20pp From Feb ’23, -0.63pp From Last Election)
More Europe(PE / Lean-Left) : 2.59%
(+0.31pp From Feb ’23, -0.23pp From Last Election)
Italexit(IE / Big Tent) : 2.03%
(+0.09pp From Feb ’23, +0.20pp From Last Election)
People’s Union(UP / Left-wing Big Tent) : 1.01%
(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)
Sovereign & Popular Democracy(DSP / Big Tent) : 0.74%
(+0.02pp From Feb ’23, -0.46pp From Last Election)
Us Moderates(NM / Lean-Right) : 0.34%
(-0.02pp From Feb ’23, -0.56pp From Last Election)
Other Parties(ALT / Mixed) : 2.68%
(+0.00pp From Feb ’23, -0.37pp From Last Election)
_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS
_RESEARCH INFORMATION
2023 Italy General Election March Projection was conducted for Globe Elections UN(www.youtube.com/c/GlobeElectionsUN) by GEHSC.en(https://gehsc.com/) & GEHSC.kr(http://blog.naver.com/mglee05), and reflects total 13 polling data(19,984 unweighted / 15,993 weighted sample size) fieldwork done between 2/21 and 2/28.
Poll Base Projection is calculated through sample size & polling date of each polling data from last one week of the latest data as Presidential Projection.
Global Elections History Society Center (GEHSC.en) 